Sudan War: UAE's Role in Fuelling Conflict and Atrocities in El-Fasher

The Escalation of Violence in El-Fasher

• ⚠️ The city of El-Fasher is experiencing a massacre, with atrocities being committed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that are visible from space.
• 🏥 Reports indicate that the RSF attacked the last maternity hospital, resulting in the deaths of 460 patients and companions.
• 📹 The RSF themselves are documenting their atrocities through videos, often in a casual manner, highlighting a grim impunity.
• 📉 Information flow is severely restricted due to a telecommunications blackout, with much of the evidence emerging from RSF-produced videos and limited aid organization reports.

Historical Context and Conflict Drivers

• 🇸🇩 The current war, which began in 2023, has roots in the 2019 pro-democracy revolution that overthrew Omar al-Bashir.
• 🤝 Initially, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF teamed up to overthrow Bashir, but later fell out, leading to the current conflict.
• 🌍 The conflict is characterized by systematic atrocities, reminiscent of the war in Darfur 20 years ago, but with the RSF now being a better-resourced and equipped paramilitary group.

External Support and Geopolitical Motivations

• 🇦🇪 The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is identified as a primary backer of the RSF, providing significant support through weapons, advanced drones, and other military hardware.
• 🗺️ The UAE's foreign policy is described as militaristic, with a preference for supporting non-state actors to assert control, driven by economic interests, access to resources like arable land and gold, and strategic positioning in the Horn of Africa.
• 💰 The UAE's involvement is also linked to a broader geopolitical strategy to challenge Saudi Arabia's regional dominance and prepare for potential shifts in global economic power, including the rise of alternative currencies.

International Response and Lack of Action

• 🌍 Western countries, despite past attention to atrocities in Darfur, are largely absent or ineffective in addressing the current crisis in Sudan.
• 🗣️ International calls for accountability and restraint from the RSF are met with skepticism, as the group has a history of promising investigations that lead to no real action.
• 📉 The UN and other international bodies face challenges due to funding dependencies on Gulf states, limiting their ability to exert pressure or enforce norms like the responsibility to protect.

Future Outlook and Civilian Impact

• 💔 The war is expected to continue with increasing civilian deaths, further militarization of the state, and sophisticated weapons entering the conflict.
• 🧩 Local groups like emergency response rooms are crucial for supporting communities amidst famine and violence, but face funding cuts.
• 🌐 Ending the war requires a comprehensive political process addressing root causes, breaking the cycle of violence, and international pressure on state sponsors, rather than just focusing on the international picture.