Stock Portfolio Update: Tracking Performance Against S&P 500 and Bill Ackman

Portfolio Performance Overview

• 📊 This week, the speaker's portfolio declined by 2.4%, Pershing Square lost 2.75%, and the S&P 500 saw a 2.43% loss.
• 📈 Year-to-date, the speaker's portfolio has gained 25.58%, outperforming Pershing Square's 25.23% gain and the S&P 500's 11.65% gain.

Upcoming Market Catalysts

• 💡 The week's economic calendar includes inflation data (Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index) due to a government shutdown.
• 📉 The speaker believes these numbers will not cause significant market movement, anticipating two additional rate cuts are still highly likely.
• 🏦 Several companies are reporting earnings, with a heavy focus on financials like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, alongside Taiwan Semiconductor, American Airlines, and Snap-on.

Market Technical Analysis

• 📉 The SPY chart showed a hard dive on Friday following President Trump's announcement of potential additional tariffs on China, despite earlier positive performance.
• ⚠️ The SPY price is currently below both the 5-day and 15-day moving averages, with concern if the 5-day crosses below the 15-day.
• 📈 The best-case scenario for the week is the market moving higher without touching the long-term green trend line, while the worst case involves breaking below it, indicating bearish momentum.

Current Portfolio Holdings

• 💰 The top five positions—Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Meta, and Mind Medicine—constitute 43.89% of the portfolio.
• ✅ Palantir (61.24% gain) and Mind Medicine (58.22% gain) are the two biggest winners in the portfolio.
• 📉 Sprouts Farmers Market is the largest loser at a 30.43% loss, with PayPal also experiencing a slight loss.

Investment Strategy & Cash Position

• 🎯 The speaker plans to increase their position in Sprouts Farmers Market by 25-50% if the market declines further, viewing it as undervalued.
• 💼 The portfolio is 91.06% invested, leaving 8.94% of the funds currently held in cash.