Steve Cohen on Recession Risk, Market Slowdown, and Inflation at Sohn Conference

Economic Outlook and Recession Risk

• 💡 Steve Cohen stated that we are not in a recession yet, but anticipates significant slowing growth.
• 🎯 He estimates a 4-5% chance of a recession, which he does not consider insignificant.
• ⚠️ Cohen believes the Federal Reserve will not act immediately due to ongoing concerns about inflation and tariffs.

Market Performance and Future Growth

• 📈 For the upcoming year, Cohen predicts growth will be 1.5% or lower.
• 📉 He suggests it's possible for markets to return to previous lows, with a potential 10-15% decline, which he does not view as a calamity.
• 📊 Cohen noted that what worked in the past will not work this year, indicating markets may remain in a trading range.

Impact of Trump's Policies

• 🗣️ Cohen described the developments with Trump and China as a "little bit of a surprise".
• 🚫 He believes Trump's actions have actually eliminated a "dire scenario" for the economy.