Stephen Wertheim on Israel's Attack on Iran and Geopolitical Strategy

Background of Israel-Iran Tensions

• 🇮🇷 The desire to engage in a "grudge match" with Iran has been a long-standing goal for many American policy elites, particularly neoconservatives, dating back to the Iranian Revolution of 1979.
• 🇺🇸 The US government historically viewed Iraq as the "lesser of two evils" during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
• 🇮🇱 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's primary goal has been to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to obstruct US-led efforts for a nuclear deal with international inspections.

Israel's Strategic Calculations

• 🎯 Israel perceived an opportune moment to strike Iran, weakening its regime and potentially toppling it, especially after direct exchanges of fire and the severe weakening of Iran's air defense systems.
• 🚀 Israel aimed to neutralize Iran's retaliatory capabilities, such as missile launchers, and has targeted Iran-aligned forces like Hezbollah.
• ⚠️ The Israeli government decided to preemptively strike Iran, despite intelligence suggesting Iran was some distance from a nuclear weapon and had not yet decided to pursue one.

Trump's Role and Diplomatic Strategy

• 🤝 Trump's administration pursued nuclear negotiations with Iran, a stance supported by Gulf states, unlike previous US administrations.
• 🚦 Netanyahu may have received a "yellow light" or at least not a "red light" from Trump regarding the strike, potentially convincing him it could aid coercive diplomacy.
• ❓ It remains difficult to see how negotiations can be re-established, as Iran may not trust the US to prevent future Israeli attacks or to secure a deal that Israel would perceive as a win.

Regional Dynamics and Potential Escalation

• 🇸🇦 A diplomatic re-engagement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has moved towards a colder peace, potentially disinclining Iran from striking these countries.
• 🚢 Iran possesses capabilities to escalate by targeting Gulf countries or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil supplies.
• 🇺🇸 The US faces risks of its service members being targeted in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-aligned militias, potentially drawing the US into a wider conflict.

International Reactions and Future Outlook

• 🇨🇳 Russia and China see an opportunity to benefit from negative international perceptions of a US-enabled Israeli strike.
• 🌍 US involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts risks damaging its global standing and diverting focus from strategic priorities like East Asia.
• 💥 There is a significant chance Trump might agree to US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, hoping Iran will back down, but this could also inspire new forms of international terror attacks.