Stephanie Roth & Libby Cantrill on Economic Outlook and Political Concerns

Economic Forecasts and Tariff Impact

• 💡 Stephanie Roth expresses conviction that Q3 could be okay and then Q4 could start getting better for the economy.
• 🎯 The current backdrop is difficult, but the economy is absorbing the tariff impact, which was an "unknown unknown."
• 📈 Approximately 35% of the tariff impact has been absorbed, with expectations of continued absorption over the next couple of months, potentially leading to a sluggish Q3.
• 🚀 By Q4, an inflection higher is expected, with improvements in travel demand and consumer spending.
• 📊 Looking into 2026, fiscal stimulus is anticipated to boost GDP by about 40 basis points.

Political Concerns and Voter Sentiments

• 🗣️ Libby Cantrill discusses the sentiment that the establishment and elites have left the working person behind.
• 💰 This feeling is cited as a reason for the election of President Trump, with concerns that the Trump administration has not yet fully addressed these issues, particularly around the cost of living.
• 📌 "Kitchen table issues" and cost of living remain the most important for voters, and polling suggests these concerns have not diminished.
• 🌍 The conversation touches upon the "America that's being left behind" and the political implications of these sentiments.