Spencer Hakimian on Q1 GDP Report: Consumption Slowdown and Tariff Impact

Key Takeaways from Q1 GDP Report

• 📉 The first quarter GDP contracted by 0.3% on an annualized basis, largely due to a substantial fall in net exports.
• ⚠️ A significant concern is the slowdown in real personal consumption, which fell from 4% in Q4 2024 to 1.8% in Q1 2025.

Economic Engine Slowing Down

• 🚗 Real personal consumption, the engine of the economy, is showing a rapid slowdown, impacting everyday spending on goods and services.
• 📊 This 220 basis point drop in real consumption occurred before tariffs fully took effect, suggesting underlying economic weakness.

Future Economic Outlook

• ⚠️ Spencer Hakimian expresses concern that the economic data is progressively worsening.
• 📈 The slowdown is happening without the full impact of price spikes from tariffs or potential business layoffs, indicating a more challenging economic future.