Slate Money: Inflation, Tariffs, Reading Habits, and the TACO Trade

Inflation and Economic Data Reliability

• 📈 While current inflation is low, there are concerns that tariffs may lead to future price increases as companies pass on costs.
• ⚠️ Staffing cuts and budget constraints at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are raising questions about the accuracy and reliability of economic data, including CPI.
• 🧐 Historically, the US has had top-tier statistics, but understaffing and a lack of modernization at the BLS could mean other countries now produce more accurate data.

Trade Wars and Market Reactions

• 🌮 The term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), coined by Robert Armstrong, explains market complacency despite Trump's protectionist rhetoric, as markets don't believe the threats will fully materialize.
• 📉 Markets have largely ignored trade war noise, leading to a sanguine outlook, though bond markets may be pricing in more long-term risk.
• 🚗 Discussions around rare earths highlight potential supply chain vulnerabilities, but the current market price doesn't reflect the dire headlines, suggesting stockpiles or expected agreements are mitigating immediate panic.

Reading Habits and Cultural Shifts

• 📚 Claims of a reading crisis, especially among younger generations, are often "kids these days" moral panics, with book sales actually up and audiobooks popular.
• 📉 Some data suggests a drop in parents reading to their children and in reading for pleasure among younger age groups, though this is debated.
• 🇺🇸 A strain of anti-intellectualism in American culture may be contributing to a decreased value placed on being well-read, making literary superstars less common.

Financial Indicators and Legal Cases

• 🛒 A significant increase in consumers using "buy now, pay later" systems for groceries is seen as a potential stealth recession indicator, signaling reliance on debt for essential purchases.
• ⚖️ The conviction and two-year prison sentence of former Goldman Sachs partner Tim Leissner marks a rare instance of a senior banker being criminally convicted for financial misconduct.