Sir John Curtice on UK Public Opinion: Divided Electorate and Reform UK's Rise

Public Sentiment on Labour's First Year

• 📊 While Labour is addressing economic concerns like the cost of living crisis, public perception indicates limited progress so far.
• 📉 Financial insecurity is at a record high, with more people struggling and fewer feeling financially comfortable compared to previous years.
• ⚠️ Two-thirds of people report their income has not kept up with prices over the last 12 months, highlighting the ongoing impact of the cost of living crisis.

NHS and Social Care Satisfaction Decline

• 🏥 Satisfaction with the NHS has plummeted to a record low of just over 20%, down from 60% in 2019, largely attributed to rising waiting lists post-pandemic.
• 📉 Similarly, satisfaction with social care has dropped significantly, with only 13% satisfied compared to 37% in 2019.
• 💰 Despite increased spending, the public believes more investment is needed in the health service, indicating a desire for improved outcomes rather than just funding levels.

Public Views on Taxation and State Spending

• 📈 While the state has expanded significantly, the public's desire for increased taxes and spending has begun to fall from its post-pandemic peak, now at 40%.
• ⚖️ There's a perception that taxes for low-income individuals are too high, while taxes for high-income earners are too low, reflecting a divided view on tax fairness.
• ❓ The long-term impact of the pandemic on the public's appetite for a larger state remains uncertain and will likely take years to clarify.

Reform UK's Appeal and Political Division

• 🎯 Reform UK is successfully capitalizing on a deeply divided public, particularly by attracting socially conservative voters who previously supported the Conservatives.
• 🚩 Nigel Farage's Reform UK has regained socially conservative, pro-Brexit voters from the Conservatives, who are now largely aligned with Reform.
• 🧩 Labour faces challenges in bridging both social liberal and social conservative divides, risking erosion from both the Greens and Reform UK.
• 📈 Reform UK has carved out a niche by appealing to socially conservative voters who also tend to be economically right-leaning, a strategy proving effective in fragmented politics.