Silver Market Performance: TD Cowen's Daniel Ghali on Technicals and Critical Minerals

Silver Market Dynamics

• 💡 The current silver market performance is described as the best since 1979, surpassing even the Hunt Brothers era in significance.
• ⚠️ While technical factors are at play, the market has transitioned from a physical shortage to a liquidity shortage.
• 📌 This shift is driven by the imminent Section 232 critical minerals investigation, which has constrained arbitrage and increased the impact of retail flows on prices.

Gold Market Drivers

• 🏦 Central bank demand was a significant driver for gold from 2022-2024, but the narrative shifted in 2025 to Western buying activity.
• 📈 The debasement trade has led to widespread accumulation of gold by institutional investors in the West, with the most popular gold ETF now widely held.
• 🔑 For a gold bull market to persist, position sizes need to increase, likely requiring a misstep by the administration regarding Federal Reserve credibility.
• 📊 Silver and gold markets are viewed as distinct, with silver's current surge being driven by different factors than gold's recent performance.