Sam Stovall: Market Near-Term Bottom, Recession Odds, and Historical Market Declines

Market Bottom and Resistance Levels

• 🎯 The market may be close to a near-term bottom, indicated by a selling crescendo with massive volumes and new lows.
• 📈 The S&P 500 might retest the September 2024 resistance level around 5400.
• 🤝 Investors are anticipating behind-the-scenes negotiations and concessions from trading partners.

Recession Odds and Economic Indicators

• ⚠️ The odds of a recession have risen to 40%.
• 📉 The NBER might not declare a recession started in Q1 2025 due to early purchases ahead of April 1st.
• 📊 A recession might be indicated in the second or third quarter of the current year, based on the Arthur Okun adage of two successive quarters of GDP decline.

Market Declines and Investor Sentiment

• 📉 Extreme declines of 15% or more can lead to a