Ryan Serhant: The 'New Normal' is Not Low Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

• 💡 The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to 6.25%, down from 6.84% a year ago, leading to a jump in mortgage applications.
• 🎯 Despite the drop, affordability is a crisis, but buying now might be a good time for those looking to build equity and paying high rent.
• ⚠️ Waiting for significantly lower rates is discouraged, as the speaker believes the 'new normal' is not low rates, and those waiting might be better off renting.

Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior

• 🏠 In New York City, 60% of deals are done in cash, and many buyers are priced out or using alternative financing methods like Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).
• 📉 While some markets show deals (e.g., Chicago listing sold below asking), luxury markets in New York are seeing strong contract signings for properties over $4 million, with few discounts.
• 📌 Sellers are delisting homes, with a significant jump in September, often due to pricing too high in the spring and then being unable to afford their next move due to high rates or rents.

The 'Locked-In' Effect and Luxury Market

• 🔑 The effect of low COVID-era rates will likely keep sellers locked in for another 5 to 7 years, impacting market liquidity.
• 💰 Extremely high-end properties, like a $250 million penthouse, can still be carried by ultra-wealthy individuals who may use financing even with cash available.
• 🚀 Deals in the luxury sector, especially new developments, are selling rapidly, indicating a strong demand at the very top of the market.