Russia's Air Weapons: The Last Ditch Effort in Putin's Invasion

Russia's Shifting Military Capabilities

• 🇷🇺 Russia's ability to quickly reconstitute tanks and armored fighting vehicles is limited, with stockpiles dwindling and new production capacity insufficient.
• 🚀 Instead, Russia has proven capable of producing large quantities of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and one-way attack drones.
• 📈 Monthly production averages include nearly 100 cruise missiles, 50 ballistic missiles, and over 4,000 drones, posing a significant challenge to Ukrainian air defenses.

Challenges in Air Defense and Interception

• ⚠️ European militaries would struggle to contend with Russia's missile and drone output, especially given the long lead times for producing missile interceptors.
• 💰 A key challenge is making air defense cost-effective, as using expensive missiles against cheaper drones is unsustainable, as seen in the incursion over Poland.
• 🎯 Counter-UAS (unmanned aerial system) efforts need to be ramped up to fill a capability gap, particularly as cheaper, shorter-range systems have limited effectiveness.

Strategic Investment in Air Defense Technologies

• 🛡️ There is a continued need for complex and expensive interceptors, particularly ballistic missile defenses like Patriot systems, which were underfunded in post-Cold War Europe.
• ✨ Alongside these, cheaper, innovative technologies like directed energy weapons (microwaves, lasers) are being developed but require significant effort to field at scale.
• 🛠️ Systems like the British Raven, which combines older air-to-air missiles with a truck platform, offer a cost-effective air defense against drones.

SEAD/DEAD and Deep Strike Capabilities

• 💥 Russia's Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) and Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (DEAD) capabilities are crucial for pushing back Russian launch platforms and potentially targeting their manufacturing base.
• 🏭 Striking Russian drone factories could significantly ease the burden on air defenses, but European NATO's SEAD/DEAD capabilities require increased investment.

Economic Warfare and Sanctions

• 💰 Ukraine's successful strikes on Russian energy export infrastructure highlight the importance of reducing Russian government revenue to limit its war-funding capabilities.
• 📉 While sanctions have been imposed, Russia has proven resilient, bypassing them through trade with Central Asian countries, and European countries continue to send significant revenue for hydrocarbons.
• 🚢 Russia's reliance on a shadow fleet for energy exports presents a vulnerability that could be exploited by closing off Black Sea and Baltic Sea routes in open conflict.
• 🌍 The potential opening of the Northern Sea Passage due to climate change could offer Russia an alternative shipping route, weakening deterrence, underscoring the need for deep strike weapons as a deterrent.