Russian Submarine 'Novorossiysk': Fact vs. Fiction in NATO's Shadow

The Novorossiysk Incident: Routine or Distress?

• 🚢 The Russian diesel-electric submarine, Novorossiysk, was recently shadowed by eleven NATO ships through the English Channel and North Sea.
• 💡 While reports suggested the submarine was crippled and limping home due to a fuel leak, experts suggest surfacing and operating on diesel is a normal procedure for these vessels to recharge batteries.
• 🧐 The presence of a Russian tugboat, often used for logistics and refueling, was also misinterpreted as a sign of distress, rather than a routine support measure.

Russian Navy Capabilities: A Mixed Picture

• 📊 The Russian Navy is a complex entity with a sliding scale of capabilities, not uniformly "rubbish" or "brilliant."
• 🚀 While older vessels like the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier and the Moskva cruiser have shown significant deficiencies, newer ships like the Gorskov and Karakurt-class corvettes, equipped with Kalibr missiles, are serious threats.
• 🎯 The Kalibr missile system, with its various land-strike and anti-ship variants, makes any platform it's equipped on a credible threat.

Seamanship and Operational Competence

• ⚓ The sinking of the Moskva is attributed to arrogance, pattern setting, distraction by a drone, and a failure to adequately defend against incoming missiles.
• 🧠 Competent seamanship relies on a strong pyramid of competence within the crew, where the ship can function even if the captain is incapacitated.
• 📉 Russian ships may be more dependent on the individual captain's experience and competence, potentially leading to issues if leadership is poor or inexperienced.

Submarine Warfare and NATO's Response

• 🌊 Russian nuclear submarines are generally well-run and increasingly capable, posing a significant threat by closing the acoustic gap with Western submarines.
• ⚠️ While diesel-electric submarines have specific operational limitations, their quietness on battery power makes them dangerous hunters.
• 🤝 NATO's strength lies in its collective capabilities, exceeding Russia's in mass and sustainability. A unified NATO response, rather than individual nations, is crucial for effectively countering Russian naval power.

The Role and Priorities of the Russian Navy

• 🗺️ Historically, the Russian Navy has focused on warm-weather ports and defending its shores, with a particular obsession with the Mediterranean.
• ⚖️ However, resource limitations and shifting priorities, especially towards the Arctic and Baltic Sea, have led to a reduced presence in the Mediterranean.
• 🚀 The future of naval warfare involves a move towards uncrewed and disposable systems, requiring faster procurement and development cycles from Western navies.