Russian Public Opinion on Putin's War: Insights from Online Surveys

Tracking Russian Public Opinion

• 💡 Russia Watcher uses daily online surveys to track public opinion in Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, funded by grants from Princeton University and the federal government.
• 🎯 Targeted ads are employed by a marketing company to reach participants for these surveys.
• 🔑 The project has been tracking attitudes since May 2022, focusing on trends over time rather than just absolute numbers.

Support for the 'Special Military Operation'

• 📊 A plurality of Russians, approximately 40%, consistently report strongly supporting the "special military operation."
• 📈 An additional 20% express some level of support, indicating a majority who outwardly back the operation.
• ⚠️ Around 25% of respondents regularly oppose the war, a significant figure given the country's size, though this opposition has shown little change over time.

Gauging Deeper Attitudes

• 🧠 The survey researchers argue that direct questions about "support" can be misleading due to factors like patriotism, and prefer more oblique questions.
• 🔍 Questions about whether things are going well, the state of the economy, or personal feelings of threat offer deeper insights into public sentiment.
• 🗣️ While the majority likely answer truthfully, understanding the underlying reasons for their stated opinions is crucial.

Shifting Attitudes on War Strategies

• 🚀 Support for different war strategies has shown significant shifts over time, often influenced by changes in the media environment and perceived likelihood of success.
• 💬 For instance, attitudes toward negotiations fluctuate considerably, unlike approval ratings for Vladimir Putin, which remain more stable.
• 🇺🇸 Shifts in US policy and rhetoric, such as President Trump's claims or Zelenskyy's visits, have impacted perceptions of negotiation outcomes in Russia.

Emotional Landscape of the War

• 🧠 Many Russians attempt to put the war out of their minds if it doesn't directly affect their daily lives.
• ⚡ Despite this, a large fraction of people still report feeling hopeful regarding the war.
• 🔥 A significant portion also expresses anger, an emotion noted as particularly motivating and powerful in political contexts.