Russian Mobsters in Ukraine War: Pardons, Crime, and the Social Contract

Prisoner Recruitment for the War Effort

• 💡 The Russian state is using prisoners to fight in Ukraine, a strategy to make the war invisible by drawing from a vulnerable population and avoiding mass conscription.
• 🎯 This approach allows the government to replace forces without impacting those with more social power, by targeting the economically vulnerable, non-Russians, and prisoners.
• 🔑 Pardons are offered for participation, with few restrictions on who can be recruited, including individuals convicted of heinous crimes like cannibalism.

The Return of Criminals and Rising Crime Rates

• ⚠️ A significant drawback of this prisoner recruitment is the return of some pardoned individuals who then commit new, often sensational, crimes.
• 📈 Estimates suggest hundreds to a thousand violent crimes committed by returning veterans, highlighting a public and visible problem.
• ⚡ These individuals often act with a sense of total impunity, further brutalized by their war experience, leading to a breakdown in social order.

The Social Contract and State Legitimacy

• ⚖️ The release of criminals challenges the Russian social contract, which promised an end to the violence of the 1990s in exchange for submission to Putin's rule.
• 😟 This creates widespread fear and distress in communities, as pardoned criminals return home, disrupting the sense of stability.
• 📌 The Russian state's strategy involves co-optation and control rather than eradication of organized crime, creating a symbiotic relationship that benefits both.

Elite Organized Crime and State Challenges

• 🚫 Certain high-level organized crime figures, particularly those with life sentences without parole, are deemed too threatening to be released, even for war service.
• 🧩 These individuals, often involved in chaotic and indiscriminate violence, challenge the state's monopoly on force and legitimacy, unlike those who operate within a more controlled framework.
• 💥 The rise of figures like Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group demonstrates the destabilizing potential of private military institutions and challenges to state authority.

The Nature of the Russian State

• 🏛️ The Russian state's relationship with organized crime is characterized by corruption and patronage, reflecting a weak state rather than a strong one.
• 🤝 The state mobilizes organized crime for its purposes, while organized crime benefits from state protection, creating a mutually beneficial, symbiotic relationship.
• 📉 The current situation, with rising crime and the use of prisoners, puts pressure on these structures, potentially undermining the foundational legitimacy of the state.