Russia Facing 'Very Bad' Indicators Amidst War and Peace Proposal Rejection

Battlefield Realities and Negotiations

• ⚠️ The current warfighting in Ukraine is characterized by positional warfare with slow-moving lines, unlike the rapid collapses seen in 1918.
• 🎯 Reasonable negotiation starting points are the de facto contact lines, not preemptive surrenders of territory.
• 📍 The fall of Perrosk is anticipated, with Ukrainians potentially withdrawing to pre-prepared defenses further west.
• 🗺️ While Ukrainian defenses exist, the cost imposed on Russians is a key factor for Ukraine, aiming to make the war unsustainable for them.

Strategic Concerns for Ukraine

• 🛡️ Pre-prepared Ukrainian fortifications exist west of Perrosk, suggesting that its fall won't lead to a deep Russian thrust into central Ukraine.
• 📍 The town of Mirrod, northeast of Perrosk, is also a concern, as its exfiltration route is the same as Perrosk's, making it precarious.
• 💬 Russian announcements and intensified operations are seen as attempts to manipulate the US understanding of the battlefield and push for worse terms.

US Peace Proposal Dynamics

• 📝 A 28-point peace plan has undergone revisions, reduced to 19 points, with problematic provisions amended.
• 🤝 Steve Witkov is set to present revised terms to Moscow, but the US administration faces a decision on whether to allow Putin to continue delaying tactics.
• 🚫 Putin's history of rejecting proposals suggests he will likely reject the current plan, possibly privately rather than publicly.
• 🇷🇺 Russia's maximalist war aims and demands for territory that compromise Ukraine's integrity indicate a rejection of terms that don't align with their goals.

Putin's Position and Russian Economy

• 📉 Indicators suggest Russia is in a weaker position, with economic pressures mounting, including selling non-liquid assets and increasing VAT.
• 💰 The international coalition supporting Ukraine has an economic advantage of multiple orders of magnitude over Russia's GDP.
• ⏳ Russia's war machine faces constraints after planning for a short war but engaging in prolonged, high-tempo operations, leading to questionable resourcing decisions.
• 🤝 Putin is invested in negotiating concessions that secure territory and political conditions Russia cannot achieve on the battlefield.