Rory Stewart & Alistair Campbell: Predicting Global Politics in 2026

Trump's Unpredictable Impact on Global Order

• 💡 Donald Trump's presidency is characterized by radical and unpredictable actions with fewer consequences than anticipated.
• 🎯 Tariffs were implemented broadly, hitting allies like Switzerland and Canada, with fluctuating application causing market confusion.
• ⚠️ Immigration policies became more extreme, involving home raids and military deployment, facing less pushback than expected.
• 🏛️ Trump's disregard for congressional appropriations and the ability to abolish agencies like USAID with minimal resistance were unforeseen.
• 🌍 The US striking Iran and Israel striking Doha, with surprisingly muted real-world impact, highlights a new normal of chaos with less consequence.

Geopolitical Instability and NATO's Future

• 🇷🇺 The possibility of Europe going to war with Russia is a significant concern, with Poland feeling already at war.
• 🛡️ Trump's questioning of NATO's Article 5 has unnecessarily eroded confidence in the mutual defense guarantee.
• 🇨🇳 Simultaneous conflicts like a China-Taiwan invasion could cripple the global economic system, with doubts about the US's stabilizing role under Trump.
• 🌡️ Climate tipping points and potential AI disasters could further destabilize the world, exacerbating Trump's irresponsibility.
• 🇪🇪 A hypothetical Russian invasion of Estonia could test NATO, potentially leading to a debate about American commitment to smaller allies.

National Service and G20 Dynamics

• 🇬🇧 The debate around introducing national service in the UK is discussed, with a proposal for a broader citizen service including military and civilian options.
• 🤝 Such a service could build solidarity in an increasingly unequal world, offering vocational training and addressing care sector needs.
• 🇺🇸 The decision to potentially move the G20 meeting from Florida due to the US disinviting South Africa is criticized as outrageous and illogical.
• 🌍 The US's perceived indispensability in global systems is questioned, with a call for greater European resilience independent of American influence.

AI Development and Geopolitical Choices

• 🤖 The trajectory of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is uncertain, with predictions for its emergence around 2026-2027.
• 🌐 The dominance of US-based AI systems raises concerns about dependency and the potential dangers of superintelligence.
• ⚖️ Countries face a tough choice between aligning with US or Chinese AI systems, with some audiences viewing the US as a greater threat to global stability.
• 🌍 The integration of US technology into global systems makes it difficult to decouple, even if the US's values are more aligned than China's.

Africa, Southeast Asia, and Global Unknowns

• 📈 Demographics and climate change are major unknown factors significantly impacting Africa and Southeast Asia.
• 🇫🇷 The shift in African nations from French influence to groups like the Wagner Group and Middle Eastern powers highlights geopolitical realignments.
• 📉 The reduction in UK's international development spending is seen as a significant reputational and power loss.

Defining National Treasures and Political Rivalries

• 🌟 The concept of a national treasure is explored, focusing on individuals whose passing would evoke widespread sadness and respect.
• 🎤 Politicians are generally excluded due to the adversarial nature of politics, unlike figures in sport, culture, and arts.
• 🥊 Debates arise about historical political rivalries, with Harold Wilson vs. Boris Johnson and Gladstone vs. Gordon Brown highlighted as compelling matchups.
• 🤔 The role of media and the pursuit of controversy versus legacy are discussed in the context of public figures.