Roger Boyes on Putin's Strategy: Splitting Ukraine and Europe from the US

Putin's Strategic Aims

• 🎯 Vladimir Putin's primary goal is to split Ukraine and Europe away from the US, rather than achieving military victory.
• 🗺️ Despite capturing little territory and suffering significant losses, Putin aims to achieve political goals that allow him to emerge as a victor.
• 🇪🇺 He seeks to divide Europe, first by separating it from America, and then by creating divisions among European nations based on their perceived threat from Russia.

Negotiation Tactics and Real Estate Parallels

• 🤝 Talks involving Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are noted, with a shared background in real estate potentially influencing their approach to territorial swaps.
• ⏳ However, Putin is currently not giving these negotiators significant attention, indicating a lack of urgency on his part.
• 🚧 The current stage of negotiations is described as being far from reaching even initial agreements, with multiple layers of negotiation required.

The War's Trajectory and Future Outlook

• ⏳ The war is estimated to have at least another year to run, based on a 28-point discussion document outlining Russian talking points.
• 🇺🇦 Key negotiation points include Ukraine's security guarantees and Russia's desire for Ukraine to be a neutral entity.
• 💰 A critical factor for progress is the financing of Ukraine, with a suggestion for Europe to utilize frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's reconstruction.

The Role of Diplomacy and Unconventional Approaches

• 🗣️ There is skepticism about the current diplomatic efforts, with concerns that Putin may be raising expectations only to delay or derail progress.
• 💬 Putin's press secretary has stated that diplomatic negotiations are viewed as another means to achieve Russia's objectives.
• 🌐 The involvement of figures like Kushner and Witkoff represents an unconventional approach to foreign affairs, where leaders communicate directly or through intermediaries rather than traditional diplomatic channels.

Comparisons and Concerns for Ukraine

• ⚖️ Comparisons are drawn to progress in Gaza through unconventional means, raising questions about how Ukraine will be treated.
• ❓ Concerns exist about whether Ukraine, not being a historically close US ally, will be treated fairly in any potential deal.
• 💔 The concept of territorial swaps is highlighted as a potentially unfair deal, involving the exchange of occupied Ukrainian lands for non-occupied ones, which is constitutionally problematic and unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine.