Roger Altman on BLS Commissioner Firing, M&A Trends, and Economic Slowdown

Disturbing Firing of BLS Commissioner

• ⚠️ Roger Altman describes the firing of the BLS commissioner as "quite disturbing" and "nonsense."
• 🚫 He asserts that manipulating data for political reasons is "essentially impossible" due to the hundreds of federal employees involved in data collection.
• 🏛️ Altman likens the act of "shooting the messenger" to actions taken in "banana republics," not the United States.

Market Reaction and Data Trust

• 📈 Markets, including the 10-year yield and oil prices, have generally believed the BLS data, indicating a perceived economic slowdown.
• 📊 Financial services firms, like JP Morgan and Bridgewater, also compile their own data, which helps validate or contradict government statistics.
• 🗣️ Altman contrasts the president's claim of "rigged" data with potential valid points about improving data collection methods and transparency.

Economic Outlook and Uncertainty

• 📉 Observers believe the economy is slowing down, with consensus forecasts for 2025 revised downwards.
• 📉 Factors contributing to this slowdown include potential tariffs, uncertainty around Fed actions, and the BLS commissioner's firing.
• ⚠️ This uncertainty typically causes consumers and businesses to hesitate, impacting economic growth.

Improving M&A Conditions

• 🚀 M&A conditions are improving, with most volume measures for 2025 showing an increase compared to 2024.
• 💼 While not yet at the peak levels of 2021, the trend indicates a positive direction for mergers and acquisitions.
• 🌐 The improvement in M&A is linked to business confidence, financial market direction, and the perceived stability of the economy.