Resisting Democratic Backsliding: Strategies and Case Studies

Diagnosis of US Democracy

• 🚨 The current state of US democracy is assessed as very unhealthy, with early signs of democratic backsliding.
• ⚠️ Democratic decay is characterized by a regime that ceases to be democratic, where elections are rigged, the state is weaponized, and freedom of speech is censored.
• 🎯 Specific concerns include the government targeting citizens, particularly non-citizens, and using executive orders against law firms and universities to silence dissent.

Opposition Response and US Uniqueness

• 📉 In contrast to Latin America, Americans are generally less attuned to threats of democratic backsliding, often exhibiting a blind trust in the system.
• 🏛️ US institutions may be more vulnerable as constitutional rules are often vague informal agreements, unlike the clear-cut written rules in countries with post-dictatorship constitutions.
• 🌱 Civil society has been quicker to respond, with hopes for more articulated movements that mobilize, train people, and connect with policymakers.

Effective Resistance Strategies

• 💡 Avoid radical goals like attempting to remove the executive through coups or broad exclusionary protests, as these tend to backfire and polarize.
• ⚖️ Leverage institutional strategies such as legislating, litigation, and electioneering to delay and obstruct specific reforms, separating the president's power from advancing an authoritarian agenda.
• ⏳ Do not wait for future elections, as there's no guarantee they will be free and fair; active participation and fighting to protect institutions are crucial.
• 🤝 Combine institutional space (like elections) with contention (mobilizations) that have specific, actionable goals.

Case Studies: Venezuela vs. Colombia

• 🇻🇪 In Venezuela, opposition attempts to remove Chávez through a coup, general strike, and election boycotts between 2002-2006 ultimately backfired, leading to the opposition losing all resources and leverage.
• 🇨🇴 In Colombia, the opposition used Congress primarily to delay and obstruct, pushing procedural irregularities to the constitutional court, which made power grabs less threatening and allowed courts to intervene.
• 🕯️ Successful mobilizations, like the pro-democracy movement in Colombia defending the constitutional court, can combine institutional and street-level action with clear objectives and non-violent tactics.

Lessons from Guatemala and International Influence

• 🇬🇹 Guatemala demonstrates how a pro-democracy movement, combined with international pressure (particularly from the US), can force a break in an authoritarian coalition and ensure a democratically elected leader takes office.
• 🌍 While the US is a hegemonic power, international pressure can still send signals and create domestic pressures to break authoritarian coalitions.
• 🗣️ Domestic audiences are also critical; visualizing abuses is essential to reach ambivalent voters and build broader support for democratic protection.

US Context and Future Concerns

• 📈 While litigation and protests are increasing in the US, coordination between politicians and social movements is still developing.
• 🏛️ Protecting the judiciary is a key battleground, requiring broad support across political divides.
• 🗳️ The decentralized nature of US elections presents both opportunities (local control) and risks (easier targets for attack), particularly concerning for upcoming elections.
• ⚠️ Cases like Hungary and El Salvador, where democratic erosion was rapid and opposition efforts were insufficient, serve as cautionary tales, though the US has more resources and pockets of opposition due to its federal and presidential system.