Ray Dalio: Post-1945 World Order Dead, What Investors Should Do Next

The End of the Post-1945 World Order

• 💡 European and American leaders at the Munich Security Conference acknowledged the official end of the post-1945 world order.
• 📌 The Security Report 2026 highlighted this shift, criticizing US policies as "wrecking ball politics" and questioning their benefit to the people.
• ⚡ This new era suggests a move from principled cooperation to transactional deals, with regions potentially dominated by great powers rather than international rules.

Ray Dalio's "Big Cycle" and Current Stage

• 🔑 Billionaire investor Ray Dalio concurs that the post-1945 order is dead, advising investors to prepare for a clash of world powers.
• 🧠 Dalio's "Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder" is currently in Stage Six, characterized by disorder, a lack of rules where "might is right," and open confrontation among great powers.
• 📈 Current confrontations manifest as economic and financial warfare, including tariffs, sanctions, restrictions on capital flows, and the weaponization of supply chains.

Key Geopolitical Flashpoints

• ⚠️ The US-China rivalry, particularly concerning Taiwan, is identified as the most dangerous flashpoint, with both nations testing red lines in a less-ruled environment.
• 🎯 The greatest risk of military war arises when two powers have comparable military strength and irreconcilable, existential differences.
• 📊 While tariffs may protect domestic businesses, they ultimately lead to reduced efficiency and contribute to greater global economic weakness by causing export losses for imposing countries.

Investment Strategy for Conflict Times

• 💰 Dalio advises investors to sell out of all debt and buy gold, as gold traditionally serves as a reliable store of value during conflicts.
• 💡 During periods of conflict, currencies cannot be trusted and asset prices are typically controlled, making gold a preferred asset.
• 💸 Wars are financed by borrowing and printing money, which devalues both debt and currency, making traditional safe investments unreliable.

Future of World Powers

• 🌱 Every world power eventually experiences decline, though some do so more gracefully than others, avoiding traumatic periods of significant economic and human cost.
• ✅ Dalio suggests that decline is not inevitable; outcomes depend on policy choices and statecraft, such as maintaining productivity, earning more than spending, and fostering win-win relationships.
• 🇺🇸 The United States, at 245 years old, is one of the longest-lasting empires, and its future trajectory (growth or decline) will be determined by its current policy decisions within Dalio's Stage Six.