Putin's Nuclear Missile Test & Serhii Plokhy on the New Arms Race

Weekend of Russian Bombardments and Attacks

• 💥 Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities faced intense Russian bombardments over the weekend, resulting in civilian casualties and fires.
• ⚠️ A drone attack on Kyiv killed three people, including a mother and daughter, with many injured in strikes on residential buildings.
• 🚀 Russia launched over 60 drones and nine ballistic missiles on Friday, followed by over 100 drones on Saturday, highlighting a significant escalation in attacks.
• 🎯 Russia intensified its campaign targeting energy infrastructure ahead of winter, with multiple attacks on coal mines.

Ground War and Russian Claims

• ⚔️ Moscow claimed thousands of Ukrainian troops were encircled near Kupansk and Prosk, a claim President Zelensky called a lie.
• 📍 Russian forces entered Prosk, described as sabotage groups, leading to firefights and casualties, with Ukrainian soldiers facing a catastrophic shortage of infantry.
• 🗺️ Journalist reports indicate Russian troops are engaged in firefights in Prosk, with logistics into the city controlled by Russian drones.
• 📈 The ISW assesses Russian forces are making tactically significant gains near and within Prosk, though not indicating an imminent collapse.

Russian Missile Test and Diplomatic Maneuvers

• ⚛️ Putin announced the successful test of a newly developed nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile, dubbed 'Burevestnik', calling it a unique product.
• 🗣️ Trump commented on the missile test, urging Putin to seek an end to the war and noting the US has nuclear submarines deployed near Russia.
• 📉 Moscow's diplomatic bid to block US sanctions on Russian energy, including efforts by RDIF CEO Kirill Dmitriev, appears to have failed.
• 🤝 A coalition of the willing meeting discussed ramping up sanctions, forcing reparations, and increasing military pressure on Moscow.

The Nuclear Age and Historical Perspective

• 📚 Historian Serhii Plokhy discusses his new book, 'The Nuclear Age', highlighting the end of the Cold War arms race and the current resurgence of nuclear tensions.
• 💡 Plokhy argues that the nuclear age never truly ended and that the Russo-Ukrainian war has underscored the importance of nuclear weapons and nuclear blackmail.
• 🌍 The period after the Soviet Union's collapse saw Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan possessing nuclear weapons, with a policy to move them to Russia, considered a victory for non-proliferation at the time.
• ⚠️ Plokhy suggests that by removing Ukraine's nuclear umbrella, a security vacuum was created in Central Europe, which attracted aggression, with the Budapest Memorandum failing to fill this gap.

Future of Nuclear Weapons and Global Security

• 📈 Plokhy expresses pessimism regarding non-proliferation, foreseeing an age with more and more sophisticated nuclear weapons, influenced by China's ambition to become a nuclear superpower.
• ⚖️ He notes the absence of arms control agreements from the Cold War era, leading to more drivers on the nuclear highway with fewer regulatory lights.
• ❓ Plokhy hopes for no use of nuclear weapons in the next 10-20 years, emphasizing the importance of responding to threats with threats to maintain a balance of fear.
• 🇨🇳 He sees China's and India's influence over Russia as a potential stabilizing factor in the next decade, offering some confidence against global war.
• 💔 Plokhy reflects on the personal impact of the war, with his grandmother's birthplace destroyed, emphasizing that the war's ultimate goal is the destruction of Ukraine as an independent nation.
• 🇺🇦 He stresses that sovereignty is irreplaceable for Ukraine's future, even if territories can be reclaimed later.