Putin's Istanbul Absence Could Delay Ceasefire Deal Until Late Autumn, Says Former Zelensky Advisor

Ceasefire Deal Prospects

• 🎯 A 20% chance exists for a ceasefire or peace deal within the next two to three weeks, potentially avoiding a summer military campaign.
• 🗓️ If no progress is made soon, any potential ceasefire and peace deal is likely to be negotiated in late autumn.

Importance of High-Level Meetings

• 🤝 A meeting between Zelensky and Putin is unlikely unless there is a deal to be agreed upon and validated.
• 🗣️ Direct engagement with Putin's senior associates by Zelensky is not seen as productive; negotiating teams are better suited for this.

Key Unforeseen Factors

• ✈️ Credible intelligence of a mass air strike against Kyiv post-Victory Day was not carried out, suggesting negotiations and sanctions may have played a role in delaying it.
• 🌍 While the US can impact Russia, China is identified as the only country capable of truly hurting Russia economically, though their action is uncertain.

Donald Trump's Role and Credibility

• 🤔 Trump's credibility is questioned due to his explosive nature and inconsistency, making his influence on the situation unpredictable.
• 🛠️ While Trump possesses the instruments to influence the situation, his willingness to use them remains uncertain, making him as unpredictable as Putin.

Future Negotiation Scenarios

• 🌐 If a deal is reached, it will likely be worked out by negotiating teams from Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and potentially China, alongside Russia.
• 🕊️ A temporary deal could include a long ceasefire and an agreement to negotiate further with ongoing military actions.