Putin's Corrupt Secret Services Sabotaged Ukraine War, Says Ex-MI6 Russia Desk Head

Russian Intelligence Failures in Ukraine

• 💰 A significant sum, estimated at up to $5 billion between 2014 and 2022, allocated by the Kremlin for subversive operations in Ukraine, was corruptly embezzled by FSB officers and businesses.
• 📢 Reporting back to leadership falsely claimed the operation would be a "walkover," with Ukraine welcoming Russian forces as liberators and an alternative political structure ready to take over.
• 🎯 This disinformation and corruption within the FSB were fundamental reasons why the initial Russian plans for Ukraine failed.

Russian Intelligence Agencies and Their Mindset

• 🧠 Russian leaders, including Putin, often come from intelligence backgrounds, fostering a mindset that prioritizes over-personalizing relationships and tactical thinking over strategic planning.
• 🕵️‍♀️ Russia has three main intelligence services: the SVR (foreign intelligence), the FSB (internal security), and the GRU (military intelligence), with the GRU being particularly aggressive in kinetic operations like sabotage and assassinations.
• 🏛️ The FSB has historically held the lead in operations within the "near abroad," including Ukraine, though inter-agency rivalry and jealousy can cause internal difficulties.

Information Warfare and Western Platforms

• 🌐 Russia excels at manipulating the information domain, a tactic that has spread to Western societies, leading to a lack of agreement on basic facts.
• 📱 Platforms like X (formerly Twitter) are considered by Russians as crucial assets for spreading disinformation, amplifying stories from obscure Russian sites to reach wider Western audiences.
• 🗣️ The dissembling and disinformation tactics seen from Kremlin spokesmen have influenced communication styles in Western governments, including the White House briefing room.

Putin's Strategic Miscalculations and Isolation

• ⏳ Putin is highly sensitive to comparisons with World War II, especially as the duration of the war in Ukraine is now exceeding the time it took the Red Army to defeat the Germans.
• 📉 Despite significant casualties, Russian forces have gained very little territory, making the war unsellable domestically.
• 🗣️ Putin is often kept in a "bubble" where he receives distorted information and prefers to hear good news, though he has previously punished generals and FSB officers when the extent of deception became undeniable.

The Trump Factor and Future Geopolitics

• 🤝 Donald Trump is seen as a potential "lifeline" for Putin, offering a way out of the current quagmire, with concerns that a re-elected Trump could "let Putin off the hook."
• 💼 Past meetings between Trump associates and Putin have led to Russian-backed peace plans that are ultimately unacceptable to Western security interests.
• 🇨🇳 Russia's increasing dependence on China, particularly economically, raises questions about what Russia may have mortgaged, with potential future Chinese interests in resources like Lake Baikal's freshwater.

The Necessity of Supporting Ukraine

• 🛡️ Providing Ukraine with sustained financial and military support is crucial for European security, as a strong Ukrainian armed forces are the best defense against Russian aggression.
• 🇺🇦 Security guarantees outside of NATO are viewed as unreliable, referencing the unenforced Budapest Memorandum.
• ⚖️ Ukraine has shown a willingness to compromise, unlike Russia, and any peace deal that requires Ukraine to cede significant territory is unlikely to be durable and could lead to further instability.