Putin's 2026 Budget Signals Prolonged War in Ukraine, No Peace Deal

Ukraine-US Peace Talks and Russian Stance

• 🇺🇦 Ukrainian MP Yulia Sirko expresses pessimism about peace talks, stating that Russian envoy Vitkov favors Russia's interests, proposing concessions on territories and army decrees.
• 💡 The US-Ukraine peace plan, initially criticized as favoring Russia, has reportedly been rewritten, but its acceptance by the Kremlin is doubted.
• 🇷🇺 Putin's signing of the 2026 Russian budget, with nearly 40% allocated to military expenses and increased military spending, indicates Russia's intention to prolong the war.

Territorial Concessions and Constitutional Law

• 🗺️ Sirko clarifies that Ukraine will not legally concede territories or rewrite borders, emphasizing that constitutional changes are impossible during martial law and require a supermajority in parliament.
• 📌 Ukraine acknowledges the inability to reclaim occupied territories immediately but maintains them as Ukrainian land, seeking future diplomatic or political solutions.
• 🌍 Historical examples, like Armenia and Karabakh, show that occupied territories can remain unresolved for decades without border changes.

Corruption Scandals and Negotiation Leverage

• 🔍 A significant corruption scandal within Ukraine, involving a senior advisor to President Zelenskyy, has emerged.
• ⚖️ While this scandal is damaging internally and will be exploited by Russian propaganda, Ukraine has established new anti-corruption bodies to address it.
• ⚡ The speaker believes the corruption scandal, though ill-timed, will not be the key factor in US-Ukraine talks.

Political Future of President Zelenskyy

• 📉 The corruption scandal has significantly decreased President Zelenskyy's chances of re-election, particularly given the impact on energy infrastructure and public services.
• ⏳ Zelenskyy is expected to remain in office until elections, but his re-election prospects are deemed unlikely.
• ⚡ The mismanagement of the energy sector, exacerbated by Russian strikes and internal issues, has led to prolonged power outages, further fueling public discontent.