Putin Unlikely to Agree to Ceasefire, Ex-Ambassador Ian Kelly Explains

Putin's Stance on Ceasefire

• 🇷🇺 Putin does not want a ceasefire because he believes he is winning on the battlefield and politically.
• 💡 He perceives the US as having moved away from supporting NATO and supplying weapons to Ukraine.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine has unconditionally agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, but Russia's response is conditional.

Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs

• ❓ The withdrawal of Adam Bohler's nomination for Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs is discussed.
• 🔑 The return of prisoners of war and children separated from their families is a crucial element for any resolution in Ukraine.
• ⚠️ It would be unfortunate if Russia interprets this withdrawal as a sign the US will not push for the return of hostages.

South Africa Ambassador Declared Persona Non Grata

• 🇿🇦 Secretary of State Rubio declared South Africa's ambassador to the US persona non grata, citing "race baiting" and anti-American sentiments.
• Diplomatic world considers this a very big step.
• 🤔 There might be a connection to Elon Musk's dissatisfaction with the South African leadership, though not explicitly confirmed.
• ⚠️ This action signals that the US will not tolerate perceived anti-American behavior from foreign diplomats.