Public Opinion Shifts Against Trump's Tariffs, Costco Leads Lawsuit

Shifting Public Opinion on Tariffs

• 📉 Public support for tariffs has significantly shifted against them over the last year, with a majority now opposing new tariffs on imported goods.
• 📊 In November 2024, 52% favored new tariffs, but by October 2025, this number dropped to 38%, while opposition rose from 48% to 62%.
• ⚠️ This shift indicates that the American people have moved against Donald Trump's signature policy.

Impact of Tariffs on Prices and Economy

• 📈 A significant majority of Americans (72% in March, 71% in October) believe that tariffs increase prices in the short term.
• 💸 This perception is particularly damaging given that inflation and affordability are currently the top issues in the country.
• 📉 The belief that tariffs raise prices is a key reason for the public's negative sentiment towards both tariffs and President Trump on this issue.

Net Approval Rating Decline

• 📉 Donald Trump's net approval rating on trade has plummeted from -2 points in January to -24 points currently, a 20-point shift away from the president.
• ⚠️ This performance is double-digit worse than his standing on trade and tariffs at this point in his first term.

Costco's Lawsuit Against Tariffs

• ⚖️ Costco, the largest retailer to do so, is suing the Trump administration to preserve tariff refunds, awaiting a Supreme Court decision on the legality of many tariffs.
• 🏛️ The lawsuit argues that the president exceeded his authority with tariffs and that the relied-upon 1977 law provides no guardrails, citing the chaotic nature of tariff implementation.
• 📣 Costco's action is noteworthy as many large companies have been reluctant to challenge the administration due to fear of retaliation.

Potential Tariff Rebate Checks

• ❓ The idea of issuing stimulus checks based on tariff revenue to the American people has a low probability of occurring.
• 💰 Prediction markets indicate only a 25% chance (1 in 4) that these rebate checks will be sent to Americans by August 2026.
• 📉 This low probability is contrasted with the small percentage of people (6% in October, 5% in March) who believe tariffs decrease prices.