Philip Stephens on Irish Unification: Risks of a Close-Call Referendum

Historical Context of Anglo-Irish Relations

• 🇮🇪 The Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921 aimed to bring peace but was followed by civil war, demonstrating the complex and unstable history between Britain and Ireland.
• 🇬🇧 For Britain, Ireland has historically been a significant political issue, whereas for Ireland, Britain has been a dominant historical force since the 12th century.
• ⚔️ The conflict between Britain and Ireland was deeply intertwined with religion, with British attempts to suppress Catholicism failing and plantations in Ulster creating a sectarian divide where identity became synonymous with religion.

Partition and Unionist Insecurity

• 🧱 Partition was not primarily driven by Britain but by the desire of Protestant Unionists in the North to avoid being subsumed into a Catholic-majority Ireland.
• 😟 Unionists feared both the new Irish Free State and potential abandonment by Britain, a fear that has persisted and continues to influence their stance today.
• ⚠️ Harold Wilson's 1970s consideration of a British withdrawal from Ireland was averted due to fears of renewed civil war spilling into British cities.

The Future of Irish Unification

• 📈 While demographics suggest a potential shift towards a united Ireland, with more Catholics now in Northern Ireland than Protestants, unification is not inevitable.
• 🤝 Peaceful unification hinges on Irish nationalists persuading Unionists that they will have equal political and civil rights in a united Ireland, similar to those Catholics now belatedly receive in Northern Ireland.
• 💥 A close-call referendum result (e.g., 51% to 49%) for Irish unity would be a complete disaster, potentially reigniting the sectarian troubles of the 1970s and 1980s.
• ⚖️ The primary risk identified is a referendum outcome that forces a significant number of people who identify as British into a united Ireland against their will.