Peter Boockvar on Tariffs, Recession Risk, and Global Investment Opportunities

Economic Growth and Tariff Concerns

• 💡 Peter Boockvar expresses concern that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession, with projected annualized growth of only 1% for the first half of 2025.
• ⚠️ He argues that tariffs, despite being framed as a revenue source, act as a hidden corporate tax that negatively impacts economic activity and corporate decision-making.
• 📊 Boockvar highlights that a 10-15% blended tariff rate on $3.3 trillion of imports could add $330-$500 billion in costs, effectively doubling the corporate income tax.
• 📉 The market's nonchalance towards tariffs is seen as adventurous, especially given the precarious fundamental backdrop and the potential for these tariffs to offset positive impacts from tax bills encouraging capital spending.

Shifting Market Dynamics and Valuations

• 🎯 The Mag 7 trade is described as having splintered, with only a few companies (Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and potentially Amazon) retaining leadership, while others like Apple and Google face challenges.
• 📈 Valuations are considered an issue, particularly if the economy falters due to tariffs, making it difficult to generate earnings growth with only 1% GDP growth.
• 🌍 There's a positive outlook on international equities, which are seen as a multi-year catch-up trade due to significant valuation gaps compared to U.S. markets.
• 💰 The weaker U.S. dollar is beneficial for international markets, and Boockvar anticipates further dollar depreciation.

Investment Opportunities in Hard Assets and Global Markets

• 🛢️ Commodity stocks, especially in oil, are highlighted as attractive due to tight inventories and U.S. shale production responding to lower prices, offsetting OPEC's production increases.
• 🥇 Precious metals, including platinum and silver, are recommended as hard assets that are important to own in the current macro environment, with silver benefiting from industrial demand.
• ☢️ Nuclear energy is viewed as a phenomenal long-term story with strong secular demand growth outstripping supply.
• 🏢 In real estate, public REITs are favored for their strong balance sheets and liquidity, with specific interest in outdoor shopping centers, cold storage, and experiential properties like those owned by VICI Properties.
• 🏘️ Multifamily real estate is seen as having potential for rent acceleration in late 2026 and 2027 due to limited new supply and high homeownership costs.

The Era of 'Set It and Forget It' is Over

• ⏳ The traditional