Ohio State vs. Michigan: Josh Pate's College Football Preview & Prediction

Rivalry History and Last Year's Upset

• 🏈 The Ohio State vs. Michigan rivalry is highlighted as one of the most intense in college football, with Michigan winning the last four matchups.
• 🤯 Last year's game in Columbus is described as an inexplicable and stunning outcome, especially given Ohio State's confidence and home-field advantage.
• 💰 A FanDuel statistic reveals that a $100 moneyline bet on Michigan starting in 2021, with consecutive wins and reinvested winnings, would yield $25,898 by the end of the season, and potentially $81,000 if bet on the upcoming game.

Key Matchup Factors and Statistics

• 📊 Since 2001, the team with more rushing yards has won every game in this rivalry, making total rush yards a critical indicator.
• 🏃‍♂️ Michigan ranks 11th in run defense and 10th in rushing offense, indicating their strength in the run game, while Ohio State is 2nd in the country in allowing "catbuster" runs (30+ yards).
• 🎯 Michigan excels at "catbuster" runs (explosive plays), while Ohio State's defense has been exceptional at preventing them.
• ✈️ Conversely, Ohio State is top 10 offensively in "catbuster" plays through the air, while Michigan's defense is number one against the "catbuster" pass.

Strategic Approaches and Predictions

• 🧠 Last year, Ohio State's strategy of trying to out-physical Michigan was seen as an "abomination" that limited their offensive potential and lowered variance.
• 🚀 This year, Ohio State is expected to leverage its offensive talent, particularly its passing game, and go "total flamethrower" early to secure a significant lead.
• ❄️ Despite the forecast of snow and cold in Ann Arbor, the speaker believes Ohio State's passing game can still be effective, potentially even more so than Michigan's if the weather doesn't involve extreme wind gusts.
• 📈 The model favors Ohio State, predicting a comfortable win, and the speaker's analysis also leans towards Ohio State.

Personal Bias and Final Prediction

• 💔 The speaker admits to being personally embarrassed by picking Ohio State in the last four games, all of which they lost, and has been at three of those losses.
• ❓ Despite the analytical leanings towards Ohio State, the speaker predicts Michigan will win and cover the spread, acknowledging the inexplicable nature of the rivalry.
• 🗣️ The prediction is framed as a way to potentially help Ohio State win, given the speaker's history of picking against them and being wrong.
• 🏆 The rivalry's intensity is emphasized, with personal anecdotes of player emotions underscoring its significance.