October Tropics Quiet, But Caribbean Development Possible

Tropical Activity Update

• 📊 The tropics are currently quiet, with no tropical formation expected over the next seven days.
• ⚠️ Although Lorenzo dissipated, the hurricane season is not over yet, extending through the end of November.

Potential for Caribbean Development

• 🌊 As waves move across the Atlantic into the Caribbean, there's a possibility for "homegrown" systems to develop.
• 🎯 Computer models, particularly long-range ones, are showing indications of something trying to form across the Caribbean.
• 🗓️ These chances are higher as we head into next week and the tail end of next week.

Model Indications and Consensus

• 🌀 The Fox model and GFS model show a wave working its way into the Caribbean, with indications of rotation and lower pressure.
• ⚠️ There is not great consensus among the various computer models regarding the strength of any potential system.
• 📍 The western Caribbean is an area to focus on, showing lower pressure and rotation.
• 🛰️ Conditions remain favorable with warm water and moisture in the atmosphere for potential development.

Future Outlook

• 🗺️ The typical pattern for this time of year involves troughing across the east coast, steering systems north and northeast.
• 📈 While it's too early to say where any system might go, these areas are being closely watched.
• 💻 Updates will be provided on myfoxhurricane.com.