NYC Weather: Snow North & West, Rain South & East - Tuesday Forecast

Storm Overview and Timing

• ⚠️ A First Alert Weather Day is declared for Tuesday due to an incoming storm impacting the Tri-State Area.
• ⏰ The weather is expected to turn bad by sunrise Tuesday, with snow north of I-287 and rain south of I-287.
• 🌦️ By late morning, the precipitation will transition to rain for most areas, except for accumulating snow north of I-84.

Snowfall vs. Rainfall Distribution

• 🌧️ Areas south and east of New York City can expect moderate to heavy rainfall, with potentially an inch or more.
• 🌨️ North and west of the city, accumulating snow is forecast, leading to treacherous travel conditions.
• 📈 Snowfall totals are expected to be lower than initially predicted, with a trace to 1 inch north of I-287, 1 to 4 inches further north, and 4 to 8 inches in the purple-designated areas.

The 7040 Benchmark for Snow

• 📍 The 7040 benchmark (intersection of 40 degrees latitude and 70 degrees longitude) is crucial for determining big snow potential in the Tri-State Area.
• 📉 The current storm's track has shifted slightly west, resulting in a more southerly wind component that brings warmer air, limiting significant snow accumulation for many.
• ❄️ While areas north and at higher elevations may still see colder temperatures and snow, the setup is not ideal for a widespread, heavy snowstorm.

Historical Snowfall Context

• 🗓️ The average first snowfall date for NYC is December 7th, though early snowfalls have occurred as early as October 15th (1876) and October 28th-29th (2011).
• 🥶 The latest first snowfall on record was February 1st, during the snowless winter of 2023.

Temperature Outlook

• 🥶 Following the storm, temperatures will drop significantly, with highs in the 30s by Friday and lows in the 20s.
• ❄️ Cold air is on the way after Tuesday's storm, but it's not expected to be cold enough for a major snow event across the entire region.