Nvidia, AMD, ASML Hit by US Export Controls on China: Dan Ives Explains

US Export Controls and China Exposure

• 📉 Nvidia shares are down approximately 5% due to new U.S. export controls targeting China.
• 🎯 The market is pricing China as a near zero revenue source for Nvidia, effectively treating the new regulations as a blockade.
• 💡 These controls are seen as the first shot in a broader trade war, with significant ripple effects expected across the tech sector.

Impact on AMD and ASML

• 💥 The export controls are considered more meaningful for AMD than Nvidia, potentially causing a larger revenue gut punch for AMD.
• 📈 ASML, the world's largest chip equipment maker, is also seeing pullbacks due to lower-than-expected bookings, partly attributed to tariffs.

Trade War and Market Adjustments

• 🃏 The situation is described as a high-stakes poker game between the US and China, with an uncertain duration.
• 📊 Analysts are baking in an approximate 10% cut across chip stocks and are looking towards 2026 numbers, depending on negotiation outcomes.
• 🎢 The next few quarters are expected to be messy, with investors advised to "buckle the seat belt" and look through the storm.

Broader Tech Sector Implications

• ⚡ The current trade and chip war is expected to last three to six months.
• 🚫 Investors may need to disregard near-term (June, September) performance and hope for a deal or negotiations with China.
• ⚠️ If the situation persists without resolution, it could have significant negative implications for the broader tech sector.