November Holiday Shopping Starts Slow, Calendar Shifts Impact Sales: CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor

November Retail Sales Performance

• 🛍️ November holiday shopping experienced a lackluster start, according to the CNBC NRF Retail Monitor.
• 📊 Retail sales, excluding auto and gas, were flat month-over-month, following decent gains in October.
• 📈 Year-over-year, core retail sales were up 4.7%, a slight decrease from prior months' gains.

Calendar Shifts and Their Impact

• 🗓️ A significant factor affecting November sales was the calendar shift, with Cyber Monday falling in December this year instead of November.
• 📉 This shift, along with the strong seasonal expectations from the pandemic era, impacted month-over-month comparisons.
• 💡 NRF economist Mark Matthews noted that while month-over-month figures were weak, the year-over-year numbers were stronger than many holiday season forecasts.

Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior

• 📉 Seven out of twelve retail sectors saw month-over-month declines, including electronics and appliances, and general merchandise.
• 🍔 Conversely, food and beverage and restaurants showed strength, indicating consumers opted for dining out over mall visits.
• 🛒 A survey found that over half of shoppers had more than half of their shopping left to do after Thanksgiving weekend, the highest percentage since 2019.

Outlook for December Sales

• 🤔 The key question remains whether December shopping will compensate for the slow November start.
• ⏳ With a late Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday shifting to December, the timing of consumer spending is crucial.
• 📊 American Express reported a 9% increase in business from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, suggesting some consumer activity occurred within that window.