November Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Data: A Closer Look

November Consumer Sentiment Results

• 📉 The preliminary November consumer sentiment number from the University of Michigan came in at 50.3, significantly below the expected 53 and the previous final reading of 53.6.
• ⚠️ This reading is the weakest since June 2022, nearing the all-time low of 50.0 recorded in the 1970s.

Current Conditions and Expectations

• 📌 Consumer sentiment regarding current economic conditions also showed a substantial miss, coming in at 52.3, the lowest recorded since the late 1970s.
• 📊 The expectations component was also weak, registering 49.0, with the comparable figure for May 2025 being 47.9.

Inflation Indicators

• 📈 The one-year inflation expectation rose slightly from 4.6% to 4.7%, marking the highest level since August when it was 4.8%.
• 💡 In contrast, the 5-to-10 year inflation expectation decreased from 3.9% to 3.6%, reaching its lowest point since August (3.5%).

Market Reaction and Observations

• 🧐 The limited market movement following these figures was noted as surprising, given the consistent softness in University of Michigan data and elevated inflation numbers.
• 📊 Current interest rate movements show the 2-year yield at 3.55% (down from last week's 3.58%) and the 10-year yield at 4.09% (up slightly from 4.08%).