Nigel Inkster on Putin's Corruption, Ukraine War, and Global Instability

Putin's Military Corruption and 'Suicide Missions'

• ⚠️ Military commanders in Russia are engaged in massive corruption and diversion of resources meant for troops.
• 🎯 Those who object to this corruption within the military are often sent on what is effectively a suicide mission.
• 💰 Putin calculates that Russia's sheer mass and resources will allow it to prevail, even with battlefield failures.

The War in Ukraine and Western Will

• 📉 While an extreme depiction, the idea of Western fatigue and dwindling support for Ukraine is a factor in Putin's calculations.
• 🌍 Despite potential Western wavering, significant support is expected from countries like Poland, the Nordic states, the Baltic states, the UK, and Germany (financially).
• 💡 Ukraine is successfully ramping up its defense industrial base, particularly in adapting UAV technologies, which is shaping global military capabilities.

Russia's Global Threat and Strategic Instability

• 🌐 Russia poses a threat beyond Ukraine through sabotage operations, cyberattacks, and cognitive operations aimed at destabilizing Western societies.
• 🚨 The West is in a state of "unpeace" with Russia, characterized by ongoing harmful activities that are likely to intensify.
• 💥 A growing threat is the lack of collective political will in the West to confront an aggressive Russia.

Nuclear Arms Race and Cognitive Operations

• ☢️ There is a state of greater strategic instability with Russia threatening nuclear use and China expanding its nuclear capabilities.
• 📉 The reduction of effective arms control legislation is a significant concern.
• 🧠 Cognitive operations aim to shape perceptions in target populations, a tactic Russia employs extensively, contrasting with Western approaches that historically focused on truth.

Post-Putin Russia and China's Ambitions

• ⏳ Vladimir Putin's departure is not guaranteed to bring stability, with the possibility of a more hawkish successor or increased instability.
• 🇨🇳 China is closely watching the Ukraine conflict as a learning experience for its own ambitions, particularly regarding Taiwan.
• 🚢 A potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely involve maritime and air assaults, not a land invasion, but the CCP cannot afford to fail in such an operation.