New START Treaty Expires: Russia, China, and the US Enter a New Nuclear Arms Race

Expiration of New START Treaty

• 🗓️ The New START treaty, the last major arms control agreement between the US and Russia, is set to expire, leaving no agreed-upon limits on the nuclear arsenals of the world's largest nuclear powers for the first time since 1991.
• ⚠️ This expiration is expected to increase global danger, as there are pressures for all sides to potentially build up their nuclear forces.

Drivers of Nuclear Arsenal Size

• 🎯 For the US, the number of nuclear weapons is driven by the need for deterrence against attacks on its territory and extending deterrence to allies, requiring credible damage limitation and second-strike capabilities.
• 🌍 Russia, viewing itself as a leading world power, seeks parity with the US in its nuclear arsenal, a significant driver for maintaining high numbers of systems.
• 📈 The US desire to target all of Russia's and China's nuclear forces simultaneously is a key driver for maintaining and potentially increasing US nuclear weapon numbers.

China's Growing Nuclear Arsenal

• 🚀 China is rapidly increasing the size of its nuclear stockpile, having roughly tripled its number of weapons and is expected to reach a thousand warheads in a few years.
• ⚖️ US planners feel it's difficult to agree to bilateral limits with Russia if there's no predictability or restraint on Chinese forces, pushing for a trilateral approach.

Modernization and Novel Weapons Systems

• 🛠️ Both Russia and the US are undergoing modernization of their nuclear weapons systems and delivery vehicles.
• 🌊 Russia is developing "novel" nuclear systems, such as the nuclear-powered Poseidon torpedo and Burevestnik cruise missile, which are not covered by New START and may indicate perceived vulnerabilities in their strategic forces.
• 🛡️ Russia also worries about US missile defense capabilities, leading to the development of systems designed to evade these defenses.

Emerging Technologies and Global Security

• 🤖 Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents both risks and benefits in military contexts, with concerns about AI processing intelligence and influencing decisions in nuclear launch scenarios, potentially speeding up decision-making under pressure.
• 💡 Most nuclear-armed powers agree that humans should remain in the loop for nuclear launch decisions, but AI's role in processing information is likely to change the decision environment.
• 🌐 The Doomsday Clock is now 85 seconds to midnight, indicating a heightened danger of nuclear weapons use due to intense hostility between major nuclear states and ongoing territorial disputes.

Extended Deterrence and European Security

• ❓ There is increasing doubt about the US commitment to its allies in Europe, leading to discussions about developing additional nuclear assurances.
• 🚫 Developing independent nuclear capabilities is seen as impractical for most European states due to a lack of necessary infrastructure and expertise.
• 💬 Public discussions about strengthening European nuclear deterrence highlight anxieties over potential US retrenchment and the need for France and the UK to bolster conventional deterrence.

Deterrence and the Ukraine Conflict

• 💥 The conflict in Ukraine raises questions about the effectiveness of nuclear weapons as a deterrent, particularly concerning extended deterrence commitments.
• 🇺🇦 Some argue that Ukraine's decision to give up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s may have emboldened Russia's invasion, a lesson that North Korea and Iran might learn.
• 📉 Despite current tensions, past successes in arms control have led to the destruction of over four-fifths of the world's nuclear weapons, showcasing the potential for risk reduction through policy action.