New Book Exposes 'Hostage Diplomacy' in US-Russia Intelligence Battles

The New Cold War and Hostage Diplomacy

• 📚 The book "Swap: A Secret History of the New Cold War" by Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson details the intense intelligence fight between Russia and the U.S., characterized as a "ruthless game of hostage taking."
• 🎯 The practice of governments using individuals as bargaining chips, known as hostage diplomacy, has shifted from terrorist groups to state actors like Russia, China, and North Korea.

Russian Espionage and 'Illegals'

• 🕵️ Vladimir Putin has prioritized the use of 'illegals' – deep cover spies who spend decades building false identities – as a key asset in his intelligence operations.
• 🌍 These individuals, often operating in Europe, spent years establishing new lives before being mobilized, as seen with Russian spies posing as Argentines who were part of a large prisoner swap.

The Role of Families in Liberation Efforts

• 💔 The book highlights the plight of ordinary Americans imprisoned in Russia, often left to languish while their families wage a constant battle against both their own government and the Russian government to secure their release.
• 🎗️ The efforts of mothers and sisters, like Elizabeth Whelan fighting for her brother Paul Whelan, are crucial in pushing the U.S. government to negotiate for the return of citizens.

Asymmetries in Intelligence and Negotiation

• ⚖️ The practice of hostage diplomacy is effective due to asymmetries between democratic and authoritarian systems; Western societies value human life and face public pressure, while autocrats face little internal consequence for holding prisoners.
• 📈 Putin has been a pioneer of this strategy, even initiating it early in his presidency with cases like Edmund Pope, and has escalated to high-profile targets such as Britney Griner and Evan Gerskovich.

Disparities in Prisoner Swaps

• 🌟 High-profile individuals like Britney Griner receive significant advocacy, while ordinary citizens or veterans like Trevor Reed and Paul Whelan face greater difficulty in keeping their cases at the forefront of U.S. government negotiations.
• 🧩 The book reveals how targets are carefully chosen and calculated, leading to exchanges that trade individuals like an arms dealer for a basketball player, or a killer in a larger swap, raising questions about the moral hazard and encouragement of further such practices.