Navigating Economic Data: A Reporter's Guide to Accuracy

Curating Information Sources

• 💡 Michael Hiltzik emphasizes curating what data to use, rather than consuming everything.
• 🎯 He suggests starting with a specific topic and then searching for relevant data, rather than passively receiving information.
• 🔑 Some sources are regularly monitored via email, but most incoming data is ignored.

Reliable Data Sources and Tools

• 📊 For macroeconomics and domestic economics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are highly recommended.
• 📈 FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is a valuable tool for accessing and visualizing data from BLS and BEA.
• 🛠️ Other useful tools mentioned include FactSet, YCharts, and Yahoo Finance, though double-checking original figures is advised.

Assessing Data Credibility

• 🔍 Consistency and coherence are key indicators of reliable data.
• ⚠️ Be skeptical of outliers in data and always check the arithmetic.
• ⚖️ Cross-referencing data from multiple sources can help identify flaws.

Common Data Quality Issues

• 📉 Data presented without an inflation deflator or seasonal adjustment can be misleading.
• 📊 Charts that do not start at zero can distort the perception of change.
• 🗣️ Be wary of interpretations of data, especially in news reports; always try to go back to the original print.

Evaluating Industry and Think Tank Data

• 📢 Data from trade organizations and lobbying groups (e.g., National Association of Realtors) should be treated with caution, as they often "talk their book."
• 🧠 Some think tanks are more reliable than others; the Peterson Institute of International Economics is cited as consistently good for trade issues.
• 🚩 Be aware that analysis from think tanks can be influenced by ideology or partisanship.

Public Companies and Forward Guidance

• 📄 Public companies are subject to SEC oversight for disclosed financials, but forward guidance is often unreliable.
• 🚀 Companies in trouble or those revising guidance downwards present red flags.
• 🤔 Elon Musk's forward guidance is specifically mentioned as often suspect due to overly optimistic timelines.