NATO Deterrence: Addressing Combined China-Russia Military and Tech Threats

NATO Defense Industrial Base Vulnerabilities

• ⚠️ Europe's defense industries face critical vulnerabilities in supply chains, production capacity, and procurement strategies, exacerbated by Russia's war in Ukraine.
• 📉 Many NATO allies are still falling short of the 2% GDP defense spending pledge, limiting investments in modernization and readiness.
• 🇺🇸 Over 50% of Western equipment provided to Ukraine was US-made, indicating a lack of an effective European defense industrial base.
• 🤝 Joint ventures between US and European companies are proposed as a logical and cost-efficient way to scale production, build in both regions, and ensure interoperability.

The Combined Threat of Russia and China

• 🇷🇺 Russia, under Putin, is identified as the single greatest threat to peace and democracy in Europe.
• 🇨🇳 China plays a significant role in sustaining Russia's war effort by providing dual-use technologies and economic support, including microelectronics, telecommunications equipment, and drone technology.
• 🌍 Ukraine is effectively fighting four countries: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, with China backstopping Russia's economy and providing critical components for missiles.

NATO's Strategic Adaptation

• 💡 NATO needs to adapt its deterrence and defense strategies to address the combined military and technological threats posed by the Russia-China partnership.
• 📈 Prioritizing sanctions and export controls on China is crucial, requiring greater European engagement and commitment.
• 🌏 NATO's role in the Asia-Pacific should be primarily economic in nature, focusing on coordinated sanctions and export controls.

Countering Russian Influence in the Western Balkans

• 🇷🇸 Russia is intensifying efforts to undermine NATO and EU integration in countries like Serbia through disinformation, economic leverage, and political interference.
• 🇽🇰 NATO should fully support Kosovo's efforts to enter the EU and NATO.
• 🛡️ Ensuring NATO's KFOR force in Kosovo is properly manned and equipped is essential to provide necessary warnings and hold Serbia accountable for threats to Kosovo.