MLB Over/Under Predictions: Which Teams Did We Get Wrong?

Over/Under Predictions Gone Awry

• 🎯 The hosts acknowledge that their MLB over/under predictions for the season have been largely incorrect, with many teams performing opposite to expectations.
• 💡 The Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants are highlighted as two teams that have significantly outperformed predictions, with the Reds experiencing a 10-game winning streak.
• 📉 Conversely, teams like the San Diego Padres, New York Mets, and St. Louis Cardinals have underperformed, leading to significant misses on their over/under lines.

Impact of Rule Changes

• ⚾ The discussion touches on whether MLB's rule changes, such as the pitch clock and ban on shifts, have impacted roster construction.
• 🏃‍♂️ It's suggested that the game now favors more athleticism and players who can create action on the bases.
• 🎯 Pitchers who rely on inducing soft contact through shifts may struggle more, potentially leading to an increase in strikeouts.

Surprising Team Performances

• 🚀 The Arizona Diamondbacks are a major surprise, exceeding their over/under significantly, with Corbin Carroll emerging as a top MVP candidate.
• 🌟 Teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers are also performing exceptionally well, exceeding expectations with strong offenses and pitching.
• 📉 Teams like the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, despite having high expectations and strong rosters, are currently on pace to miss their over/under lines.

Underperforming Favorites

• ⚾ The New York Mets and San Diego Padres are singled out as major disappointments, especially considering their significant offseason acquisitions and high expectations.
• 🧐 The average age of teams is discussed, with the Mets being the oldest, suggesting that perhaps older teams are struggling more with the new, faster-paced game.
• 📊 The White Sox are mentioned as a team that is significantly underperforming their over/under, with little indication of improvement.

Lone Wolf Corrects and Flops

• 🐺 Jake highlights his "lone wolf" correct picks, including the Philadelphia Phillies (though their performance is now more uncertain), San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants.
• 🚫 Trev admits to being wrong on several teams, including the Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics, and Washington Nationals, though the Nationals are on pace to hit their over by a small margin.
• 🤔 The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins are discussed as teams that are very close to their over/under lines, with their final outcomes still uncertain.

Biggest Flips and Surprises

• 🤯 Trev identifies the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers as his biggest "flip-flop" misses, as they are on pace to miss their over/under lines despite strong rosters.
• 💡 James picks the Cleveland Guardians as his biggest miss, noting their struggles despite a weak division.
• 📈 The Rangers' success under Bruce Bochy is highlighted as a significant positive surprise, exceeding their over/under by a large margin.