Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Putin's Strategy and Trump's Influence

Putin's Strategic Dilemma

• 🧠 Putin's position is complex, stemming from uncertainty about his "client" and the eventual supply of necessary weapons to Ukraine.
• ⚠️ The immense cost of restoring regions like Kursk highlights the financial strain of the conflict.
• 🎯 Putin's primary concern is not being left alone without Trump's support regarding Ukraine and Europe.

The Role of Trump and European Support

• 🤝 Putin needs Trump's continued involvement, as he recognizes that Europe could significantly increase its military support for Ukraine.
• 🚫 The possibility of comprehensive economic sanctions that would make it impossible for Putin to continue the war is discussed, though their implementation is uncertain.
• 🚢 Sanctions against the "shadow fleet" are mentioned as a potential, though perhaps not immediately impactful, measure.

Prospects for Negotiation and Future Conflict

• 🚦 If a ceasefire is agreed upon in Istanbul, it would signal Putin's readiness for serious negotiations.
• ⏳ Conversely, if the ceasefire position is non-negotiable, it suggests another six months of fighting.
• 📈 There is a strong conviction that Putin intends to resume hostilities within two years, viewing future opportunities as either difficult targets or low-hanging fruit, with the latter implying a near-guaranteed restoration of conflict.