Mikhail Kasyanov: Venezuelan Oil Could Cut Putin's War Budget by 30%

Impact of Venezuelan Oil on Russian Revenue

• 💡 Venezuelan oil entering the market could significantly impact Russia's revenue, potentially causing Putin to lose 30% of his war budget.
• 📉 Increased oil supply from Venezuela could lead to a further fall in global oil prices, exacerbating Russia's economic problems.
• ⚠️ Russian oil is already selling at a significant discount, costing less than $40 per barrel, while Putin's budget is calculated on an expectation of $70 per barrel.

Shifting Geopolitical Alliances and Negotiations

• 🤝 The coalition's approach in Paris has shifted, separating security guarantees for Ukraine from other points and attempting to satisfy demands from figures like Donald Trump.
• 🎯 This new approach aims to confirm transatlantic unity and has been met with agreement from key European leaders and the US.
• ❓ Putin's reaction is uncertain; rejecting the new approach would mean rejecting Trump's stance and goodwill.

Putin's Potential Strategies and Challenges

• ⏳ Putin is expected to continue delaying tactics and further negotiations with President Trump, possibly offering economic projects.
• 📉 The economic situation in Russia is becoming increasingly difficult, with growing problems that could be worsened by events in Venezuela.
• 🌍 Putin is losing his image as an alternative or neutralizer to US policies in Latin America and other regions, as seen in past instances where he did not support allies like Assad or Iran.

Economic Pressure and Future Concessions

• 💰 The key to breaking the conflict may lie in economic sanctions, particularly from America, and controlling the "shadow fleet" of vessels.
• ⚖️ If the US and European countries unite to control sanctions and the shadow fleet, it would place immense pressure on Putin, potentially bringing closer the day of real concessions.
• 🤔 The central question remains whether economic pressure will force Putin to make concessions, or if he will react more aggressively.

Personal Safety and Activism

• ⚠️ Mikhail Kasyanov acknowledges the risks he faces, having been placed on a list of terrorists and extremists by Russia and having survived previous attacks.
• ✨ Despite the dangers, he continues to fight for a better future and to help Russian people understand the reality of their situation and the sources of their suffering.