Mikhail Kasyanov on Trump's Submarine Move and Putin's 'Blackmail' Tactics

Trump's Strategic Submarine Deployment

• 🚀 President Trump's decision to position two American submarines strategically near Russia is seen as a move to counter Putin's blackmail tactics.
• 💡 This action demonstrates that the US is not afraid of Putin's red lines, effectively removing a key instrument of pressure on the West.
• 🧠 The Kremlin is reportedly nervous about the disappearance of this important tool for exerting influence.

Putin's Negotiation Strategy

• 🎯 Kasyanov believes that Putin only understands strength and that his policy of blackmailing America has been a long-standing tactic.
• ⚠️ Trump's response is interpreted as a sign that he is increasingly understanding Putin's nature and is moving away from appeasement.
• 🗣️ Putin previously used blackmail to gain concessions from European and American leaders, a strategy Trump's actions now aim to dismantle.

Russia's Economic Vulnerabilities and Sanctions

• 💰 Putin's revenue from oil sales is a sensitive point, and Western efforts to control oil prices are crucial.
• 📈 The EU's new price cap for Russian oil, while adopted, is unlikely to be effective without American support.
• 🌍 Combined Western efforts are needed to significantly reduce Putin's oil revenue and exert real pressure.

India's Role in Russian Oil Trade

• 🛢️ India has been profiting by purchasing Russian oil at low prices and reselling refined products on the international market.
• ⚠️ President Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on India due to its continued trade with Russia, aiming to maximize pressure.
• 🤝 The West, including Europe and the US, previously overlooked India's oil trade with Russia for years.

Diplomatic Efforts and Peace Prospects

• 💬 Special envoy Steve Wickoff's visit to Moscow is noted, but Kasyanov is skeptical about its potential to achieve peace.
• 🇷🇺 Kasyanov believes Putin himself is the only person who can convince Russia to stop the war, and that Putin currently feels he is winning.
• 🌍 Putin may attempt to lecture Wickoff on historical narratives and seek to negotiate a new European and world security architecture.