Mideast Analyst: Netanyahu's Gaza Plan Unlikely to End Hamas Influence

Gaza Military Operation Goals

• 🎯 The stated goals of a gradual military takeover of Gaza City are considered elusive, akin to the Prime Minister's conception of total victory.
• 💡 While Israel has achieved a significant military impact by hollowing out Hamas, ending its influence and creating a post-war scenario conducive to Israeli goals is unlikely.
• 🗣️ The Prime Minister appears more motivated by avenging the dead and prolonging the war than by rescuing the living hostages.

Consequences of Forced Evacuation

• ⚠️ A forced evacuation of tens of thousands of Palestinians, on top of existing famine, will have frightful humanitarian consequences.
• 🏥 This includes increased malnutrition, food insecurity, systemic illnesses due to lack of medical care, and a tragic position for hostages and residents.
• 📈 The plan to separate fighters from the population and lay siege or operate within Gaza City is unlikely to succeed and may lead to an even more fraught situation.

Internal Israeli Security Dynamics

• ⚠️ Public controversy between the Prime Minister and the IDF Chief of Staff reveals the degree of difficulty the IDF faces in this war.
• ⚖️ The adversary's assets within civilian populations present a significant challenge, mirroring historical concerns about the impact of prolonged occupation on forces.
• 📉 The withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 was partly due to concerns about the impact on Israeli forces' morale.

Hamas's Continued Influence

• 📌 Despite military operations, Hamas continues to have governing capacity, paying salaries and having Palestinian Authority officials on the ground.
• 🗺️ Israel has taken over a significant portion of Gaza, but the remaining areas, with a large Palestinian population, remain difficult to control and influence.