Mick Ryan: World War III Already Began in February 2022

The Onset of World War III

• 💡 Historians may view February 2022 as the start of the Third World War, with elements of a "phony war" similar to the early stages of World War II.
• 🌍 The conflict in the Western Pacific and ongoing wars in the Middle East are cited as contributing factors to this broader global conflict.

Russia's Aggressive Designs and Alliances

• ⚠️ Russia, under Putin, has expressed aggressive designs in the Baltics and Scandinavia, as well as against Poland and Ukraine.
• 🤝 Reports of North Korean and Chinese individuals being captured indicate a shift, with Putin now acknowledging foreign involvement after initially denying it.
• 🔗 An emerging alignment between Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China is described as a "learning community" adapting to a new form of warfare.

Military Strategy and Targets

• 🎯 The Mayday parade is considered a legitimate military target under the laws of armed conflict, with potential to demonstrate Putin's weakness to the Russian people.
• 💥 Attacking during rehearsals or buildup phases is suggested as a way to disrupt the parade without negative optics, while other Russian targets, like munitions arsenals, are also being effectively struck.
• 📉 Russia's reliance on North Korea for artillery ammunition suggests a weakness in its domestic defense industrial base.

Potential Future Contributions to Ukraine

• ✈️ Key priorities for Ukraine include closing the skies through air defense, which European and other nations could support with ground-based systems or fighter missions.
• 📚 Training Ukrainian soldiers in Eastern Poland is proposed to reduce travel time and increase efficiency.
• 🚢 A naval component in the Black Sea to keep Russians out of the western part is also mentioned, though Ukraine is currently managing this well.
• 🪖 The possibility of boots on the ground is considered a long-term option, requiring a ceasefire, clear mandate, and command structure.

The New Cold War and Political Will

• ❄️ The current situation is characterized as a de facto cold war, with Russia and China having been in conflict with Western countries for years.
• 🏛️ A lack of political courage and long-term vision among Western politicians, who often focus on short-term domestic issues, hinders effective foreign policy and defense planning.
• ⏳ Commitments to Ukraine may need to last for years, if not decades, similar to UN peacekeeping operations, requiring adaptable strategies to avoid mission creep.