Michael O'Hanlon on Putin's Draft, Europe's Stance, and Ukraine Support

Putin's Military Strategy and the Draft

• 🎯 The recent draft of 135,000 men signals Russia is on a war footing, not necessarily weakness, and aims to build a military larger than the US.
• 🧠 Putin has cultivated a narrative of Russia being under attack, framing the war as defensive, similar to World War II, to maintain domestic support.
• 👑 His actions are driven by a vision to recreate the Russian Empire, willing to go to extremes and believing Ukraine or Western resolve will eventually falter.

Europe's Shifting Stance on Russia

• ⚠️ German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated Europe is "not at war, but no longer at peace with Russia," reflecting frustration with the ongoing Ukraine war.
• ⚡ This sentiment is fueled by Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace and alleged assassination attempts on Western leaders and dissidents.
• 🧐 While factually correct, the utility of such statements in policy-making or influencing Putin is uncertain.

Recommendations for Pressuring Putin

• 🤝 Increased pressure on Vladimir Putin is needed from Europeans, Chinese, Indians, and the United States.
• 💰 The US should provide additional financial support for Ukraine and toughen sanctions.
• 🚢 Coordinated efforts are required to prevent Russia from evading the oil price cap on its hydrocarbon shipments, thereby limiting Putin's available funds.