Michael Binyon on Trump-Putin Summit: Putin Treated as Equal, No Ukraine Deal

Summit Outcomes and Putin's Gains

• 🎯 The summit played out largely as Vladimir Putin likely envisioned, with Donald Trump leaving without a deal.
• 🤝 Putin was treated as an equal on American soil, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
• 📉 The West remains divided and squabbling, failing to present a united front.

Ukraine's Position and Future Negotiations

• 🇺🇦 President Zelensky supports a trilateral agreement involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine, emphasizing Europe's role.
• ⚠️ However, the prospect of a trilateral meeting in Moscow, with Zelensky present during fighting, is considered absurd.
• ❓ It remains unclear if Putin will agree to any deal that involves ceding occupied territories or if Ukraine can constitutionally give away territory without a referendum.

Trump's Role and Learning Curve

• 🤔 Trump is acknowledged to have found the situation more difficult than anticipated, realizing that ending the war in a day was unrealistic.
• 💡 While some of his ideas were unconventional, he is given credit for trying various options.
• 🗣️ Putin's strategy appears to be to hold firm on demands, give away nothing, and wait for concessions.

Geopolitical Implications and China's Role

• 🇨🇳 China, particularly President Xi, may be considering the end of the war and holds a significant hand in supplying Russia.
• 📈 Xi could potentially exert more pressure on Putin than Trump, possibly suggesting an end to bombardments or a truce.
• 🌍 Putin has gained recognition and emerged from isolation, though not necessarily welcome in other European capitals.

Long-Term Strategy and Consequences

• ⏳ The longer the conflict drags on, the more fighting and Russian attempts to gain territory will occur.
• 🇷🇺 Putin's strategy involves prolonging the conflict, grabbing territory, and wearing down Ukrainian resistance while avoiding further sanctions.
• 🧩 Ending a war quickly is not feasible under these circumstances, requiring significant further work and negotiation.