Mexican Cartel Expert Explains El Mencho's Death and Resulting Violence

The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)

• 🎯 The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), founded by the recently deceased leader El Mencho, has become the most powerful Mexican cartel in just over a decade.
• 🌍 The CJNG operates in over 40 countries and is considered by some to be the most powerful criminal organization globally.
• 💰 Their illicit activities include dominating the cocaine trade, smuggling avocados, and engaging in multi-billion dollar Mexican oil theft.

El Mencho's Death and Initial Reactions

• 💥 The death of El Mencho, the cartel's founder, came as a shock to those tracking Mexican cartels, as he was widely viewed as almost untouchable due to his power and reach.
• 📈 The explosion of violence across Mexico was directly linked to El Mencho, making his confirmation of death a clear explanation for the surge.

Cartel Warfare and Mexican Authorities

• ⚔️ Mexican authorities are facing a two-front war against cartels, with the Sinaloa cartel in the north and CJNG in the south.
• 🤝 An alliance between a faction of the Sinaloa cartel and the CJNG has exacerbated violence across Mexico, even before El Mencho's death.
• ⚠️ The Mexican government is attempting to regain control, with the operation against El Mencho sending a message of their willingness to confront cartels.

The Role of US Intelligence

• 🛰️ The operation's success was significantly aided by US intelligence capabilities, including signal intelligence and imagery, which the Mexicans may lack.
• ✈️ There has been a surge in US intelligence assets, such as drones and aircraft, providing crucial support to Mexican authorities.
• 🇺🇸 Many Mexican units tasked with high-value operations are vetted by the US government and have a history of working with US law enforcement and military personnel.

Future Leadership and Potential Splits

• ❓ The immediate focus is on identifying El Mencho's successor within the CJNG, with his right-hand man, known as '03', being a prominent candidate.
• ⚖️ The key question is whether regional leaders will coalesce around a single leader or if a split within the cartel will occur.
• 🩸 Cartel splits often lead to internal civil wars, which unfortunately result in a significant increase in violence.