Metals Traders Experience Record Profits Amidst Market Volatility

Record Profits for Metals Traders

• 📈 Metals traders are experiencing their most profitable year on record, driven by supply upheavals and record-high prices.
• 💰 Major players like Glencore and Trafigura are on track for their best years, with IXM already surpassing previous profit records.
• 🚀 The current year is described as a great time to be a base metal trader, with opportunities rarely seen.

Market Dynamics and Opportunities

• 💡 The boom is partly attributed to a debasement trade narrative, with gold, platinum, and silver leading price increases.
• ⚠️ While copper is stable, other commodities like crude oil and grains are heading lower, making metals the focus for traders.
• 📊 The 40, 50, and 60-month moving averages for gold show it is at its highest levels since 1991, indicating it is very expensive.

Central Banks and ETF Inflows

• 🏦 Central banks have been significant buyers of precious metals in recent years, though their current buying activity is less elastic.
• 💰 ETFs have seen substantial inflows this year, approaching 20% of total ounces, a significant shift from the outflows of the past four years.
• ⚠️ Caution is advised as gold becomes extremely popular and expensive, suggesting it might not be the ideal time to invest.

Bitcoin vs. Precious Metals

• 📉 The speaker expresses concern over Bitcoin, contrasting its performance with precious metals.
• 🔗 Bitcoin's correlation with the VIX (volatility index) shows it behaves as a risk-on trade, not a debasement hedge.
• 📊 The Bitcoin to gold ratio is at a support level, and a break below it could signal a move towards a deflationary trend.
• ⚠️ Both gold and Bitcoin are considered expensive, with Treasury bonds being the only relatively cheap asset mentioned.